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項次 書目
1
題名:Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement    
著者:Tsung-Yi PanYi-Ting YangHung-Chi KuoYih-Chi TanJihn-Sung LaiTsang-Jung ChangCheng-Shang LeeKathryn Hua Hsu
出版地區:台灣
出版城市:台北市
學科:地球科學
關鍵字:Southwest monsoon ; Statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting ; Artificial neural networks ; Moisture flux
刊名:Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
卷期:22卷6期(2011.12)
頁碼:633-645
語言:英語
摘要: 英文摘要PDF

Typhoon Morakot 2009, with significant southwest monsoon flow, produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2361 mm in 48 hours. This study hopes to improve a statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting method used over the mountain region of Taiwan via an artificial neural network based southwest monsoon enhancement (ANNSME) model. Rainfall data collected at two mountain weather stations, ALiShan and YuShan, are analyzed to establish the relation to the southwest monsoon moisture flux which is calculated at a designated sea area southwest of Taiwan. The results show that the moisture flux, withsouthwest monsoon flow, transported water vapor during the landfall periods of Typhoons Mindulle, Bilis, Fungwong, Kalmaegi, Haitaing and Morakot. Based on the moisture flux, a linear regression is used to identify an effective value of moisture flux as the threshold flux which can enhance mountain rainfall in southwestern Taiwan. In particular, a feedforward neural network (FNN) is applied to estimate the residuals from the linear model to the differences between simulated rainfalls by a typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) and observations. Consequently, the ANNSME model integrates the effective moisture flux, linear rainfall model and the FNN for residuals. Even with very limited training cases, our results indicate that the ANNSME model is robust and suitable for improvement of TRCM rainfall prediction. The improved prediction of the total rainfall and of the multiple rainfall peaks is important for emergency operation.


    

本卷期目次
Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 22卷6期 (2011.12)
Eyewall Evolution of Typhoons Crossing the Philippines and Taiwan: An Observational Study/ Kun-Hsuan ChouChun-Chieh WuYu-Qing Wang
Extreme Precipitation Estimation with Typhoon Morakot Using Frequency and Spatial Analysis/ Hone-Jay ChuTsung-Yi PanJun-Jih Liou
Tropical Cyclone Track and Structure Sensitivity to Initialization in Idealized Simulations: A Preliminary Study/ Yang CaoRobert G. FovellKristen L. Corbosiero
Prediction and Diagnosis of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Using the Naval Research Laboratory's Mesoscale Tropical Cyclone Model/ Eric A. HendricksJonathan R. MoskaitisYi JinRichard M. HodurJames D. DoyleMelinda S. Peng
Momentum Budget Evolution of Typhoon Nari (2001) During the Landfall Process/ Ming-Jen YangTai-Chi Chen WangYi ZhangChing-Yi Weng
Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009)/ Ching-Yuang HuangChan-Seng WongTien-Chiang Yeh
Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement/ Tsung-Yi PanYi-Ting YangHung-Chi KuoYih-Chi TanJihn-Sung LaiTsang-Jung ChangCheng-Shang LeeKathryn Hua Hsu
Rainfall Simulations of Typhoon Morakot with Controlled Translation Speed Based on EnKF Data Assimilation/ Tzu-Hsiung YenChun-Chieh WuGuo-Yuan Lien
The Impact of a Warm Ocean Eddy on Typhoon Morakot (2009): A Preliminary Study from Satellite Observations and Numerical Modelling/ I-I LinMing-Dah ChouChun-Chieh Wu
High-Resolution Numerical Simulation of the Extreme Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Morakot. Part I: Comparing the Impact of Microphysics and PBL Parameterizations with Observations/ Wei-Kuo TaoJainn Jong ShiPay-Lin LinJhihying ChenStephen LangMei-Yu ChangMing-Jen YangChun-Chien WuChrista Peters-LidardChung-Hsiung SuiBen Jong-Dao Jou
Preface to the Special Issue on "Typhoon Morakot (2009): Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting"/ Chun-Chieh WuMing-Jen Yang
 
   
 
   

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