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dvd臺灣農村規劃的在地美臺灣閱讀
   
   
   
     
   
 
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1
題名:稻熱病流行學之研究Ⅳ.葉稻熱病盛行率預測模式之發展    
EPIDEMIOLOGY OF RICE BLAST Ⅳ. Development of forecasting models for disease prevalence of rice leaf blast
著者:黃益田(Yih-Tyang Huang)
出版地區:台灣
出版城市:桃園縣
學科:農林漁牧礦科學
刊名:桃園區農業改良場研究報告
卷期:1期(1983.9)
頁碼:22-37
語言:繁體中文
摘要: 中文摘要PDF ; 英文摘要PDF

本研究主要目的在探討本省七個地區第一期作葉稻熱病盛行率與冬季氣候之關係及建立盛行率預測模式。分析結果顯示,冬季氣候之變異對葉稻熱病盛行率有顯著之影響:在各種氣候因素中,以氣溫因素最為顯著;與盛行率呈正相關性。冬季三個月,以二月份之氣候對稻熱病之影響最大。利用各種不同之廻歸分析法,共建立七個區域性長期預側模式;預測時間達30~60天,所有模式在三月上半旬,可作成預報;經民國68~71年盛行率實測資料之驗證,台北、新竹、台中、台南、高雄、花蓮六區之模式預測效果較佳;台東之模式次之。檢討部分模式効力較差之原因有二:其一因預測因子有外插之現象,影響預測值。其二可能因意外因素如藥劑防治方法顯著改變,而影響實測值。
The influence of winter climatic variation on the regional disease prevalence of rice leaf blast for 1967-1980 was studied by the correlation and regression analysis. In most regions, disease prevalence of leaf blast was positively correlated with February temperatures except Kaohsiung. In Taipei, disease prevalence was also correlated with evaporations. Winter relative humidity was positively correlated with disease prevalence in Tainan. Duration of sunshine in February was positively correlated with disease prevalence in Taichung and Hualien; on the contrary. negative correlation was found between the disease prevalence and duration of sunshine in Kaohsiung. Amount and frequency of precipitation in January were positively correlated with disease prevalence in Kaohsiung; while in Tainan January frequency of precipitation was negatively correlated with disease prevalence.
Seven regional forecasting models were developed; and the forecasts were verified against independent survey data for 1979, 1980, 1981 and 1982. Most of the forecasting models performed satisfactorily. The partial failure of forecasts from the models was observed; this might be attributed to extrapolating outside of range of original data for predictors or the effects of some unexpected factors such as .drastic change in the control method.


    

本卷期目次
桃園區農業改良場研究報告 1期 (1983.9)
雄不稔性水稻稔性恢復基因之尋求與提高天然雜交率之研究/ 卜瑞雄黃真生
氣溫之變化與水稻紋枯病病勢進展之關係/ 游俊明蔡武雄黃益田
稻熱病流行學之研究Ⅳ.葉稻熱病盛行率預測模式之發展/ 黃益田
A New Method Developed for Estimating The Disease Incidence of Sheath Blight of Rice/ Chum-Ming YuMing-Jen Fan
 
   
 
   

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