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項次 書目
1
題名:Errors in Coefficient or Expected Value? Effects of Different Methods on Simulated Values for a Linear Model and the Nonlinear Von Bertalanffy Growth Model    
模擬方式對於模擬線性模式及非線性范氏成長模式之影響
著者:Yu-Jia Lin(林裕嘉) ;Nan-Jay Su(蘇楠傑) ;Wei-Chuan Chiang(江偉全) ;Chi-Lu Sun(孫志陸)
出版地區:台灣
出版城市:基隆市
學科:農林漁牧礦科學
關鍵字:蒙地卡羅模擬 ; 不確定性 ; 模式參數 ; 加成性及乘積性誤差 ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Uncertainty ; Model coefficient ; Additive or multiplicative error
刊名:Journal of the Fisheries Society of Taiwan
卷期:39卷1期(2012.3)
頁碼:23-34
語言:英語
摘要: 中文摘要PDF ; 英文摘要PDF

蒙地卡羅模擬是一種,可將不確定性納入漁業評估模式中考量之有利工具。然而在實務上,即使考量同樣類型的不確定性,不同研究間使用的方式也往往有所差異,因此有可能產生額外的偏差。本研究探討:1.加成性(additive)誤差於模式參數並考量參數相關、2.加成性誤差於模式參數並忽略參數相關、3.加成性及、4.乘積性(multiplicative)誤差於模式期望值等四種方式,採用雨傘旗魚(Istiophorus platypterus)的資料,利用鮑利經驗式(Pauly's empirical equation)及范氏成長模式(Von Bertalanffy Growth equation),作為線性及非線性模式之範例。在線性模式及范氏成長模式中,不同模擬方式影響模式之條件期望值甚微。然而方式1及2,其模擬模值變異數僅為方式3之1~7%或40~95%,模擬隨機誤差、並加於模式參數上之模擬方式,並不能完全呈現資料中之不確定性。因此欲使用蒙地卡羅模擬資料時,建議應使用加成性或乘積性誤差於模式期望值之方式。
Monte Carlo simulation is widely applied to incorporate the uncertainties in fisheries assessment models. However, even modeling the same kind of uncertainty, different practices often occur among studies, which may lead to erroneous results. We demonstrate how simulation results differed among methods of incorporating uncertainty into simulation in different ways: adding random errors to model either coefficients or expected values. Using life history parameter data from sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus), natural mortality from Pauly's empirical equation, and lengths-at-age from the von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) were simulated using different methods. Different simulation methods did not affect the averages of simulated values from Pauly's empirical equation and had only slight effects on the simulated lengths-at-age from the VBGM. For both linear Pauly's equation and nonlinear VBGM, the variances of the simulated values from the errors-in-coefficients methods were under-estimated, being approximately 1 to 7% or 40 to 95% of those from errors-in-expected-values methods, depending on whether the correlation among coefficients was included or not. Therefore, adding random errors with either an additive or multiplicative error structure to the expected values is preferred over the errors-in-coefficient methods for fully representing uncertainty in the data.


    

本卷期目次
Journal of the Fisheries Society of Taiwan 39卷1期 (2012.3)
Relationship between the Zooplankton Biomass and the Acoustic Volume Backscattering Strength at 38 kHz in the Waters off Northern Taiwan/ Szu-Chia KaoMing-An Lee
Antivirus and Prebiotic Properties of Seaweed-oligosaccharide-lysates Derived from Agarase AS-Ⅱ/ Shao-Chi WuSheen-Kye KangBartosz KazlowskiChang-Jer WuChorng-Liang Pan
Errors in Coefficient or Expected Value? Effects of Different Methods on Simulated Values for a Linear Model and the Nonlinear Von Bertalanffy Growth Model/ Yu-Jia LinNan-Jay SuWei-Chuan ChiangChi-Lu Sun
Effects of Microwave-assisted Extraction on the Free Radical Scavenging and Ferrous Chelating Abilities of Ecklonia kurome Extract/ Yeu-Pyng LinChung-Shin YangShao-Chi Wu
Gloiopotes hygomianus Steenstrup & Lütken (Copepoda: Euryphoridae) Parasitic on Wahoo (Acanthocybium solandri) of Taiwan/ Ju-Shey HoChing-Long Lin
Purification and Characterization of Aeromonas salmonicida MAEF108 Agarase AS-Ⅱ/ Shao-Chi WuSheen-Kye KangChorng-Liang Pan
 
   
 
   

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