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1
題名:促使台灣地區婦女生育下降因素之探討--Bongaarts模式的運用    
PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN TAIWAN AREA
著者:羅淑瑞(Shu-Rei Lo) ;陳曉章(Charles H. C. Chen)
出版地區:台灣
出版城市:台北市
學科:社會學
刊名:人口學刊
卷期:10期(1987.6)
頁碼:29-53
語言:繁體中文
摘要: 中文摘要PDF ; 英文摘要PDF

近年來台灣地區育齡婦女總生育率由民國64 年的2.8 人,降為民國73 年的2.1 人。促 使婦女總生育率下降的因素是什麼? Kinsley Davis 及Judith Blake於五十年代最先提出 生育模式( Reproductive Model )的理論:婦女生育的下降係直接受生物與行為變頂的影 響,而社會、經濟、文化及環揖等因素,則透過生物與行為因素,間接地影響婦女的生育。 惟為了探討這些關係,得各項變項加以量化,常因此產生了一個高度寶雞化的生育模式,實 際研究上是相當地困難。故而一般學者與專家均著重於探討社會、經濟等因素對生育的影響 。於七十年代末期, John Bongaarts 針對Kinsley Davis 及Judith Bl ake ( 1956 )的生 育模式,提出了一個相當完整與簡單的模式,以分析直接影響因素和生育高低間的關係。本 文即嘗試運用Bongaarts所提的模式,來探討影響台灣地區婦女生育率下降的直接影響因素 ,何者影響最大?影響程度如何?叉在政策的推行與制訂上具有何種特殊的涵義及有何可參 考之處?況且我國於民國74 年公布實施優生保健法放寬施行人工流產條件,則該法的公 布,對生育下降的影響叉如何?亦可利用此次研究,瞭解法公布前婦女施行人工流產對生育 力的影響,以建立起探討該法公布後影響力變化的依接。 本文運用行政院衛生署委託台灣省家庭計畫研究所辦理的r 72 年及73 年台灣地區有偶 婦女人工流產實施狀況調查計畫」所接集的資料,以Bongaarts 的理論,加以分析,評估四 個最主要的直接影響因素一一制昏比率、產後哺乳不孕期、使用避孕芳法及施行人工流產,對 婦女總生育率下降的影響情形。結果顯示,以Bongaarts 模式估算出台灣地區總生育率的估 計值為1.96 ,較觀察值〈部樣本的總生育率) 2.03 ,低了0.07 ,其差異仍在Bongaarts 的實證研究差異( 0.36 )範圍內,假設四個指數對總生育率的影響為一,對各指數取對數 ( log )值,可明顯地看出台灣地區四個指數對總生育率的影響情形。顯示避孕指數對總生 育率的下降影響最大,為47 %。其次為結婚指數,其影響比例為41 %。至於男兩個指數, 人工流產指數與產後哺乳不孕指數,對總生育率下降的影響相當小,前者為11%' 後者僅 為1% 。 ' 以不同行政區域來看,其估計的總生育率:七大都市為2.01 ,縣轄市與鎮為1.96 '鄉 51 村為2 , 07 ,與其觀察值( 1, 77 , 2 , 02 及2 , 31 )比較,略有差異。不同地區別的四個指數 的影響,均仍以避孕指數的影響最大,七大都市為45 % '縣轄市及鎮爵的%'鄉村為50% ;其次為結婚指數,其影響比例:七大都市為44 %'縣轄市與鎮及鄉村均為40% 。人工流 產指數以縣轄市與鎮的影響較大為13 %. '鄉村地區影響最小為9 % 。產後哺乳不孕指數的 影響最為微小,對七大都市的總生育率完全無影響,另兩個區域的影響力也僅為1% 。
In Taiwan the tota1 fertility rate decreased from 2.83 per woman in 1975 to 2.05 in 1984. Thedecline appeared accelerated during the recent years. . Promotion of family planning program has been implemented since 1964. IUD, oral pill, condom and sterlization are t Ïle methods provided by the program. Induced abortion has only been legalized based on specifiedgrounds ín July 1984. To establish the baseline. data and to evaluate the impacts of induced abortion on fertility before and after promulgation of the Law, an induced abortion prevalence survey was conducted by the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning in 1985 and sponsored by . the Department of Hea1th, the Executive Yuan. 12,516 samples of married women age 15-49 were covered in the survey. The sizable sample is significant to represent Taiwan area. Bongaarts' model of proximate determinants of fertility is applied on the survey data to analyze the relationships among total fertility rate, total fecundity, and the indices of the proximate determinants on nonmarriage, contraception, induced abortiort, and lactation. Using the Bongaarts' model, the estimated total fertility rate is 1.96 which is slight1y lower than that of 2.03 of the observed value and the total fecundity of 15.3 which is estimated by Bongaarts' & Potter's. The formulated proximate determinants of total fertility rate, total fecundity, and indices of proximate determinants of nonmarriage, contraception, induced abortion, and lactation are shown as follows: TFR (tota1 fertility rate) = TF (tota1 fecundity) X Cm ((index of non-marriage) X Cc (index of contraception) X Ca (index of induced abortion) X Ci (index of 1actationa1 infecundabi1ity) 1.96 = J 5.3 X 0.43 X 0.38 X 0.80 X 0.98 By the 10garithtn method to portion the difference between tota1 fecundity and tota1 fertility rate among the four proximate determirtants, the index of contraception (0.38) appears to have .the greatest (47%) effect on the decline of TFR; followed by proportion of married which counted for 41 %. As to the other two indices, induced abortion and 1actationa1 infecundabi1ity had s1ight effect, of 11 % and 1 % on the decline of TFR, respective1y. As regards to the different urbanization areas, the estimated value of TFR ι of 1arge cities is 2.01 per woman, 1. 96 for urban township, and 2.07 for rura1 areas. Compared with the observed va1ue of 1.77, 2.02, and 2.31 , the differences are sma11. The effect of four indices among the different urbanization areas, contraception has a1so the greatest effect on fertility decline. The effect of 45% for 1arge cities, 46% for urbantownship, 50% for rura1 areas. The reason for higher effect 'in the rura1 areas than the 1arge cities, is due to the fact that the woman in these areas use more effective method than the woman in other areas. As regards to theeffects of the proportion of married on the fertility of three different urbanization areas, they are 45%, 409忌, and 40%, respective1y. As of induced abortion, the effect is 13% in urban township and 11 % in 1arge cities. This fact may be due to underreporting in 1arge cities. Other studies indicated that residents in 1arge cities have more induced abortions. Lactation infecundabi1ity had no effect on decline of fertility in 1arge cities but it had a very small impact of 1 % in urban township and rura1 areas.


    

本卷期目次
人口學刊 10期 (1987.6)
台灣人口轉型與老年人口的扶養問題/ 林忠正
DETERMINANTS OF CITYWARD MIGRANTS' FERTILITY: THEORY AND EVIDENCE/ Ming-Cheng Chang
人口週期研究上的一些問題/ 陳寬政
A STUDY OF OCCUPATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT OF MIGRANTS TO KAOHSIUNG CITY, TAIWAN/ Ching-Fu ChangKao-chiao Hsieh
BOOK REVIEWS--Economic Development, Social Structure and Population Growth. By Victor S. D'Souza. First published in 1985 by Sage Publications India Pvt Ltd. ISBN 0-8039-9487-7./ Ming C. Chen
BOOK REVIEWS--Human Migration; W. A. V. Clark, Scientific Geography Series, Volume 7, New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1987, 95 pp./ Lan-Hung Nora Chiang
促使台灣地區婦女生育下降因素之探討--Bongaarts模式的運用/ 羅淑瑞陳曉章
ANALYSIS OF LOCAL MORTALITY VARIATION: CANADIAN CASE STUDY/ Kao-Lee LiawMichael V. HayesRonald G. McAuley
INFANT MORTALITY LEVELS, PATTERNS, AND DIFFERENTIALS IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA/ William K. A. Agyei
PATTERNS OF MORTALITY DIFFERENTIALS BY MARITAL STATUS IN LOW MORTALITY COUNTRIES/ Yow-Hwey Hu
 
   
 
   

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