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題名:莫拉克颱風路徑與降雨作業預報校驗     (28點)
Verification on the Typhoon Morakot Track and Rainfall Forecast Issued by the Central Weather Bureau
著者:葉天降(Tien-Chiang Yeh) ;郭鴻基(Hung-Chi Kuo) ;呂國臣(Kuo-Chen Lu) ;王世堅(Shih-Chien Wang) ;陳怡良(Yi-Liang Chen)
出版地區:台灣
出版城市:台北市
學科:天文學 ; 地球科學
關鍵字:颱風 ; 颱風路徑預報 ; 颱風雨量預報 ; 預報校驗 ; Typhoon ; Typhoon track prediction ; Typhoon rainfall prediction ; forecast ; Verification
刊名:大氣科學
卷期:38卷1期(2010.6)
頁碼:85-98
語言:繁體中文
摘要: 中文摘要PDF ; 英文摘要PDF

98 年8 月莫拉克颱風侵臺期間降雨劇烈且持續,在臺灣中南部與臺東造成歷年來最嚴重之氣象災 害,本文針對中央氣象局對此颱風之路徑與降雨量預報進行校驗。結果顯示中央氣象局對其拉克颱風24 小時颱風路徑預報平均誤差值為87 公里,較過去預報誤差平均值為小,也較日本氣象廳、美國聯合颱 風警報中心對該颱風相同時間所發布預報之誤差為小。對其拉克颱風48 小時與72 小時路徑預報之平均 誤差,中央氣象局分別為1 92 公里與276 公里,誤差則略較日本氣象廳與美國聯合颱風警報中心所發布 預報之誤差為大。在警報發布初期,中央氣象局則對颱風移速有較明顯之高估,以致對其拉克颱風影響 臺灣整體時間之估計上低估。 在雨量預報上,中央氣象局對其拉克颱風之總雨量預報基本上能掌握降雨較大區域之定性分布,第 一份發布的預報單之雨量估計值以臺灣北部與實際較為相符,而中南部與畫東之總雨量預報偏少,尤以 臺東預報誤差最大。臺東雨量預報誤差主要因為其處於颱風環流過山之背風面,依據過去之統計為少兩 區。由校驗也顯示,中央氣象局根據新增資訊更新總雨量預報,而此些預報對降雨尚有相當長之預警時 間: 如屏東山區降雨量預報達上限之預警時間大部分在18 小時左右,最少有I1 小時;高雄山區預警時 間大部分在23 小時左右,最少亦有8 小時,嘉義山區在前期之預警時間在2 0 小時以上,而後則為7 、 8 小時。 改進颱風作業預報之方向,建議可由改善48 小時與72 小時之路徑預報著手,並持續進行颱風降雨 預報技術之研發,而為減少颱風災害,國內民眾與防救災單位必須體認颱風路徑與雨量預報之不確定 性,尤其是較長期間之預報。因此需避免僅重視第一次警報發布時之資訊,而須隨時注意作業單位更新 後之資訊,充分掌握預報預警時間,採取防範措施,以降低災害損失。
Typhoon Morakot (2009) made a record breaking torrential rainfall and caused massive damage over Taiwan area. In this study, verification on the operational forecast of the track and rainfall of Morakot issued by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) was perfo口ned and discussed. Results show that the averaged distance eηor of the CWB 24-hour track forecasts of Typhoon Morakot is 87 km which is smaller than the mean track forecast error ofthe CWB in the last few years, and is also smal1er than the averaged forecast errors of Japan Meteorology Agency of Japan (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center of USA (JTWC) in homogenous comparisons. For the 48-hour and 72-hour forecast errors, the CWB errors are 192 km and 276 km, respectively, and are larger than those of JMA and JTWC. The overestimate of the moving speed of Typhoon Morakot nearby Taiwan results in the underestimate ofthe influence ofthe typhoon on the island. About the Morakot rainfal1 forecast, CWB predicted 800 to 1,000 mm ofrainfall over westem Taiwan at their first warning issued at 10:30 local time on 6 August. The official rainfall forecast was able to predict the general distribution of the typhoon rainfall pattem over Taiwan. M句or areas with torrential rainfall were accurately predicted by CWB. However, the amount of the total rainfall was much underestimated. Particularly, over the southeastem Taiwan where lee side dry area was expected as the cyc10nic flow over the Central Mountain Range from the west, but the rainfall system was able to maintain the intensity when it moved over the mountain and resulted the largest rainfall forecast error. Furthermore, the successive rainfall forecasts delineated that 也e CWB was able to update and issue more accurately rainfall forecast as more observations available. ln most of the time, the forecasts were provided more than 10 hours prior to the rainfall occurring. Typhoon rainfal1 forecast is sti l1 a big chal1enge in typhoon operational forecast. With steep mountains modifYing the typhoon motion and rainfal1 distribution, to accurately forecast the typhoon rainfal1 over Taiwan is even more difficult. Timely use of the update information provided by CWB in disaster mitigation operation may be able to reduce the damage and loss. To improve the typhoon track forecast, particularly in the 48-hour and 72-hour, is also desired to upgrade CWB typhoon rainfall forecast.


    

本卷期目次
大氣科學 38卷1期 (2010.6)
莫拉克颱風的多重尺度背景環流/ 許晃雄洪志誠翁春雄李明營羅資婷郭芮伶柯亘重周佳
莫拉克颱風綜觀環境以及降雨特徵分析/ 周仲島于宜強鳳雷陳永明李清勝鄭明典
莫拉克颱風雷達觀測中尺度雨帶特徵/ 陳台琦唐玉霜魏志憲林沛練廖宇慶張偉裕周鑑本紀傅庭林忠義
莫拉克颱風侵臺前後之衛星、探空與水文觀測總覽/ 林傅雄杜佳穎劉振榮陳萬金林依依林唐煌齊祿祥周鑑本陳思為楊益劉崇治莊秉潔蔡徵霖李明旭
莫拉克颱風路徑與降雨作業預報校驗/ 葉天降郭鴻基呂國臣王世堅陳怡良
颱風數值模擬之現況與挑戰--2009年莫拉克颱風/ 吳俊傑黃清勇楊明仁簡芳菁洪景山顏自雄
 
   
 
   

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