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1
題名:Production Model Analysis of the South Atlantic Albacore and a Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Data Accuracy    
南大西洋長鰭鮪生產量模式及蒙地卡羅敏感度分析
著者:Chi-Lu Sun(孫志陸) ;Su-Zan Yeh(葉素然)
出版地區:台灣
出版城市:台北市
學科:地球科學
關鍵字:一般平衛生產量模式 ; 南大西洋長鰭鮪 ; 蒙地卡羅模擬 ; 敏感度分析 ; Generalized equilibrium production model ; South Atlantic albacore ; Monte-Carlo simulation ; sensitivity analysis
刊名:ACTA Oceanographica Taiwanica
卷期:35卷3期(1996.9)
頁碼:335-350
語言:英語
摘要: 中文摘要PDF ; 英文摘要PDF

本報告以Fox(1975)平衡生產量模式分析南大西洋長鰭鮪總漁獲量及有效漁獲努力量資料,並利用蒙地卡羅模擬分析來評估漁獲資料變異對模式估計結果的敏感度。結果顯示最佳套適模式估計南大西洋長鰭鮪最大持續生產量(MSY)在28,380~29,270公噸,其適正有效漁獲努力量為147~152百萬鉤。目前漁獲量(1992年27,680公噸)低於MSY,而其有效漁獲努力量則為適正有效漁獲努力量的1.04~1.17倍,顯示該資源已處於完全開發狀態。蒙地卡羅模擬分析結果確認上述之模式估值及所得結論。
Albacore catch and effort data of the Taiwanese longliners in the South Atlantic Ocean from 1968 to 1992 and of the South African baitboats from 1985 to 1992 were analyzed by the generalized equilibrium production model. A sensitivity analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted to evaluate the effects of data accuracy to the results. Results show that the predicted maximum sustained yield (MSY) and the optimal fishing effort (fopt) appears to be in the range of 27, 350 to 44, 940 mt and 147 to 199 million hooks. The best fitting equilibrium yield curves (depend on cases and the number of ages assumed) predicted the most likely MSY at a 28, 380 to 29, 270 mt range, and fopt at a 147 to 153 million hook range. The current catch (27, 680 mt in 1992) was below the predicted most likely MSY while the current effort was about 1.04 to 1.17 times higher than that needed to produce the most likely MSY. These results indicated that the stock appears to have been fully or slightly over exploited. The Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis corroborate the results and the conclusions.


    

本卷期目次
ACTA Oceanographica Taiwanica 35卷3期 (1996.9)
Microbodies of Protoplasts of Grateloupia sparsa (Halymeniaceae, Rhodophyta)/ Yean-Chang ChenYoung-Meng Chiang
PCR Strategies for Amplification of Human Bone Morphogenetic Protein 4 Homologue from Marine Invertebrates/ S. P. Lucinda HwangM. Y. PengC. A. ChenC. P. Chen
Density and Species Composition of Yeasts in the Outlet Areas of Two Acidic Streams in Liandong Bay, Northeast of Taiwan/ Wung-Yang ShiehChyi-Sen ChenFwu-Ling Lee
在高屏峽谷海域實地檢驗稀釋培養法對推估浮游植物生長率及被捕食率的成效/ 張正陳焜銘龔國慶
Phytoplankton Primary Production in the Oyster Maricultural Areas/ Rang Huang
Can Algicides Be Used to Kill the Toxic Dinoflagellate, Alexandrium minutum, in Aquaculture Ponds?/ H. M. SuM. S. SuI. C. Liao
二仁溪附近海域的浮游動物研究/ 黃哲崇韓仕龍王麗珍
Inorganic Nitrogen (NH4+-N and NO3--N) Uptake by Red Alga Halymenia microcarpa (Montagne) P. C. Silva/ Chung-Sing ChenChin-Yuan Chen
鹽度、光度、水溫和硝酸鹽對重緣葉馬尾藻(Sargassum, duplicatum Bory)和長技沙菜(Hypnea cervicornis J. Agardh)之成長影響探討/ 翁韶蓮
Reproductive Ecology of the Pocilloporid Corals in Taiwan. I. Seriatopora hystrix/ Tung-Yung FanChang-Feng Dai
Stock Structure Identification of Atlantic Albacore Population Using Taiwanese Longline Catch Data/ Chien-Chung Hsu
Production Model Analysis of the South Atlantic Albacore and a Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Data Accuracy/ Chi-Lu SunSu-Zan Yeh
氯化鈉濃度對臺灣東北角沿岸海水酵母菌Candida intermedia生長及蛋白質合成的影響/ 郭榮烈黃穰
Using Red Alga Halymenia microcarpa as a Biofilter in an Integrated Aquarium System/ Chung-Sing ChenChin-Yuan Chen
 
   
 
   

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